New York’s second quarter housing price reports are out. I currently have DE’s, Streeteasy’s and a few major companies’ reports, but the data is really confusing, so it will take some time to compile.
Let’s talk about the current situation, the overall housing prices and transaction volume really suffered a heavy blow in the second quarter, not only is the price of housing a two-digit decline, the volume of transactions is also halved. I actually predicted it in the 2020 Q1 report.
In my personal opinion, I would recommend targeting the next wave of buyers around November-December when New York City is still closed for the second quarter, as buyers will be more active in looking at homes since the market has just opened, resulting in a short-term bias towards sellers. For those looking to buy, I would recommend starting to prepare and even make an offer, but it is best to negotiate on the side until around November, unless a very good DEAL comes along.
Overall, the trend is the same for most companies, but there is a wide range of data depending on each company.
Market Report Summary
Since the information for this quarter is very confusing, I will organize the following points myself
The more prime and expensive the location, the greater the impact, especially in Manhattan, where rents and prices have been hit hard. The difference in the data between the companies can also be attributed to this problem, as the overall drop in data is very different from the drop in a single price range.
Manhattan prices fell about 15-25% above $5 million, around $3 million down about 10% (the higher the price point the more it fell), and I saw about 5-7% in the $1-2 million price point.
Most of the housing prices in the second quarter have declined, except for the bottom 20% of the market, where prices are basically unchanged.
Developers are releasing positive results, but not too many properties are selling well.
The current impact on rents is about 10% in Manhattan, 7-8% in Brooklyn and along the water in Queens, and by analogy in other areas, more than 30% of tenants should be behind or underpaying their rent.
With so many choices for tenants, landlords should have a very difficult time finding tenants for at least the next 2 months.
Here are my predictions.
There is still room for a decline in prices, and it depends on the price range.
If sellers do not sell in July-September, they will have to wait until next year.
Conversely, buyers who did not buy from March to June will be better off waiting until Thanksgiving and Christmas in November-December, when New York City has been unblocked and buyers’ intentions have risen somewhat.
For those who want to pick up a bargain, the next six months are likely to be for new homes, second homes, and all price points, depending on how the U.S. government handles loans and whether there will be a break in capital between developers and finance.
Market Report Data
Manhattan Home Prices
The range of decline in home prices varies (also varies by new and used homes)
Streeteasy reports -4% annual change
DE reports -6.5% annual change
Corcoran reports -7% annual change
Inventory declined by 20-30%
The following is the information of DE & Corcoran, I will post the links of other companies without repeating them
|2020Q2||Quarterly %||2020Q1||Annual %||2019Q2|
|Average Sales Price||188.1||-0.3%||188.7||-10.2%||209.5|
|Median Sales Price||100萬||-5.7%||106||詳下||121.5|
|Days on Market||124日||7.8%||115日||8.8%||114日|
|Days to Sell||13.8月||81.6%||7.6月||79.2%||7.7月|
Queens Home Prices
Price range varies by location in Queens
Streeteasy reports 0% annual change overall
DE reports -4.3% annual change (LIC & Astoria in prime Queens)
DE reports +6.2% annual change (other Queens locations)
Brooklyn Home Prices
Very different price range (also varies by new and used homes)
Streeteasy reports -1.6% annual change
DE reports -7.4% annual change
Corcoran reports 0% annual change
Inventory reports range from -20% to a 2.6% increase…to be honest it’s very confusing.
We won’t see the impact of the economic contraction caused by this epidemic until later.
Rents I’m seeing are down about 10% in Manhattan, 6-8% in Queens and Brooklyn, and some further out where there is less data and it’s hard to make a valid report.
Most landlords are willing to offer deals right now, and that’s what I’m suggesting at this point, because the number of vacancies has gone up significantly, which means the length of time they’ve been available is going to be longer and rents have gone down significantly.