2023 Q2 Market Report

2023 Q2 New York City Real Estate Market Report

Overview:
The second quarter of 2023 showcased a mixed picture for New York City’s real estate market. While sales activity slowed due to continued interest rate hikes and economic uncertainty, prices remained relatively stable, particularly in prime Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods. The rental market continued to thrive, with record-high rents driven by limited supply and strong demand. The luxury segment saw steady performance, although international buyers were less active compared to previous years.

Sales Market Highlights:

1. Price Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • The median sale price for condos in Manhattan reached $1.27 million, a 0.5% decrease compared to Q2 2022 but stable compared to Q1 2023.
  • The average price per square foot for condos remained at $1,790, reflecting a 1% drop from the previous quarter.
  • Co-ops in Manhattan also saw a 2% year-over-year decline, with the median sale price settling at $850,000.
• Brooklyn:
  • The median condo price in Brooklyn was $985,000, marking a 0.7% decline year-over-year.
  • The co-op market in Brooklyn remained stable, with the median sale price at $730,000.

1. Sales Volume:

• Manhattan:
  • Manhattan’s sales volume declined by 10% year-over-year, with 2,700 transactions in Q2 2023. Buyers were hesitant due to rising mortgage rates, which contributed to reduced activity.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn experienced a more modest decline in transactions, down 6% year-over-year, with 2,000 sales recorded. The borough remained attractive for buyers seeking relatively more affordable options.

1. Inventory Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • Inventory increased by 8%, with 6,500 active listings by the end of Q2. Buyers had more options, but the market remained competitive for well-priced properties.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn saw a 5% increase in inventory, with 5,800 active listings. The added supply provided more choices but didn’t significantly ease pricing pressures.

1. Luxury Market Resilience:

• The luxury market (properties priced above $5 million) continued to perform well, with $7.9 million as the average sale price, representing a 2% year-over-year increase.
• Cash buyers remained dominant in this sector, accounting for 45% of luxury transactions.

1. Buyer Demographics:

• First-time buyers were significantly impacted by interest rate increases, representing only 9% of transactions, down from 12% in Q2 2022.
• All-cash buyers continued to play a major role in high-end sales, particularly in Manhattan.

Rental Market Highlights:

1. Rising Rents:

• Manhattan’s rental market saw median rents rise to $4,875/month, a 6% year-over-year increase and a 2.5% increase compared to Q1 2023.
• Brooklyn’s median rent climbed to $3,825/month, marking a 7% rise from Q2 2022, driven by limited rental supply.

1. Demand for Larger Units:

• The average rent for a 2-bedroom in Manhattan reached $6,050/month, while in Brooklyn, 2-bedroom apartments rented for an average of $4,700/month. Demand remained high for larger units due to hybrid work arrangements and families looking for more space.

1. Low Vacancy Rates:

• Manhattan’s vacancy rate dropped to 1.5%, indicating high demand and limited supply.
• Brooklyn’s vacancy rate was similarly low at 1.9%, with rental units in prime areas such as Williamsburg and Brooklyn Heights being leased quickly.

1. Landlord Concessions:

• Landlord concessions were offered in 30% of new leases, down from 40% in Q1, as demand for rental units remained strong.

New Developments and Construction:

1. New Condo and Rental Units:

• Over 1,500 new units were delivered in areas like Downtown Manhattan, Long Island City, and Downtown Brooklyn, many targeting luxury buyers and renters.

1. Construction Delays:

• Continued construction delays caused by labor shortages and rising material costs meant that many projects scheduled for completion in 2023 were delayed into 2024. These delays contributed to supply shortages in both the sales and rental markets.

Future Forecast:

1. Sales Market Outlook (Q3 2023):

• Sales prices are expected to remain relatively flat through Q3, with slight declines in some areas due to economic uncertainty and high interest rates.
• Sales volume is likely to continue decreasing as interest rates and affordability challenges push some buyers to the sidelines, particularly in the condo and co-op markets.

1. Rental Market Outlook (Q3 2023):

• Rents are projected to rise by 1-2% in Q3, as demand remains strong and new rental inventory remains limited.
• Vacancy rates are expected to remain below 2%, with few concessions being offered by landlords.

1. Key Market Drivers:

• Interest rates will continue to dictate buyer behavior, with more would-be buyers opting to rent instead.
• Supply chain issues and construction delays will limit new development completions, keeping inventory tight in both sales and rental markets.

Key Numbers Recap:

• Median sale price (Manhattan condos): $1.27 million (-0.5% YoY)
• Manhattan median rent: $4,875/month (+6% YoY)
• Brooklyn median rent: $3,825/month (+7% YoY)
• Vacancy rate (Manhattan): 1.5%
• Sales volume (Manhattan): 2,700 transactions (-10% YoY)
• Luxury market average sale price: $7.9 million (+2% YoY)

Conclusion:

Q2 2023 highlighted the impact of rising interest rates on New York City’s real estate sales market, with slower sales activity and stable prices across both Manhattan and Brooklyn. The luxury sector, supported by cash buyers, continued to perform well despite the economic headwinds. Meanwhile, the rental market experienced significant growth, with high rents and low vacancy rates as demand for larger units remained strong. The rest of 2023 is expected to bring modest price adjustments in the sales market, while the rental sector will likely continue to see price increases, especially in high-demand areas like Downtown Manhattan and Brooklyn.