2023 Q1 Market Report

2023 Q1 New York City Real Estate Market Report

Overview:
The New York City real estate market in the first quarter of 2023 faced the ongoing impact of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. Sales activity continued to slow, particularly in the middle and lower price segments, while prices remained relatively stable in Manhattan and Brooklyn. The rental market continued to thrive, with demand outpacing supply, leading to further increases in rental prices. The luxury market, buoyed by cash buyers, remained resilient despite macroeconomic challenges.

Sales Market Highlights:

1. Price Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • The median sale price for condos in Manhattan was $1.28 million, a 0.4% increase compared to Q1 2022. This marginal rise was attributed to stability in prime neighborhoods and high-end properties.
  • The average price per square foot for condos stood at $1,800, showing a 1% year-over-year increase.
  • Co-op prices in Manhattan experienced a slight decline, with the median sale price at $860,000, down 1% year-over-year.
• Brooklyn:
  • The median condo price in Brooklyn was $990,000, reflecting a 0.6% increase compared to the previous year.
  • Co-op prices in Brooklyn remained flat, with the median sale price at $735,000.

1. Sales Volume:

• Manhattan:
  • Sales volume decreased by 12% year-over-year, with 2,400 transactions in Q1 2023. Rising mortgage rates and inflation concerns contributed to the slowdown in activity, especially in the entry-level market.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn’s sales activity dropped by 8%, with 1,900 transactions. The borough continued to attract buyers looking for more affordable options, but higher interest rates limited purchasing power.

1. Inventory Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • Inventory rose by 6%, with 6,200 active listings at the end of Q1. While this offered more options to buyers, many remained hesitant due to the economic climate.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn’s inventory saw a 4% increase, with 5,500 active listings. Although supply increased, competitive pricing kept the market moving.

1. Luxury Market Resilience:

• The luxury market (properties priced above $5 million) held steady, with an average sale price of $8 million, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase.
• Cash buyers dominated this sector, making up 48% of luxury transactions, as interest rates had less impact on these buyers.

1. Buyer Demographics:

• All-cash buyers represented a significant portion of sales, particularly in the luxury market, where they accounted for 40% of overall transactions.
• International buyers showed renewed interest, particularly in Manhattan’s luxury market, although their presence was still lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Rental Market Highlights:

1. Continued Rent Growth:

• Manhattan’s median rent climbed to $4,750/month, marking a 5% increase year-over-year. The high demand for rentals was driven by many would-be buyers opting to rent due to high mortgage rates.
• Brooklyn’s median rent reached $3,750/month, a 6% year-over-year increase.

1. Demand for Luxury Rentals:

• Larger units, particularly luxury rentals, saw significant demand. The average rent for a 2-bedroom unit in Manhattan was $5,900/month, while in Brooklyn, it was $4,650/month.

1. Low Vacancy Rates:

• The vacancy rate in Manhattan dropped to 1.6%, while Brooklyn’s vacancy rate stood at 1.8%, both reflecting tight rental market conditions.

1. Landlord Concessions:

• Landlord concessions (such as one month of free rent) were offered in 35% of new leases, down from 45% in Q4 2022, indicating stronger market conditions for landlords.

New Developments and Construction:

1. New Condo and Rental Supply:

• Over 1,200 new units were delivered in neighborhoods such as Hudson Yards, Long Island City, and Downtown Brooklyn in Q1 2023, adding luxury inventory to both the sales and rental markets.

1. Construction Delays:

• Labor shortages and rising material costs continued to delay the completion of several projects, pushing some scheduled deliveries into the second half of 2023. This contributed to supply shortages in both the sales and rental markets.

Future Forecast:

1. Sales Market Outlook (Q2 2023):

• Sales prices are expected to remain flat in most segments, with slight downward pressure on entry-level properties due to affordability challenges.
• Sales volume is likely to remain subdued, as high interest rates continue to weigh on buyer confidence, particularly among first-time buyers.

1. Rental Market Outlook (Q2 2023):

• Rents are expected to rise by another 1-2% in Q2, with demand remaining strong due to the limited availability of rental units.
• Vacancy rates are anticipated to stay below 2%, with landlord concessions likely to decrease further as competition for rentals intensifies.

1. Key Market Drivers:

• Interest rates will continue to play a critical role in shaping the market, with higher rates leading many potential buyers to remain in the rental market.
• New developments are expected to bring additional inventory to both the sales and rental markets, though delays will keep supply constrained in the near term.

Key Numbers Recap:

• Median sale price (Manhattan condos): $1.28 million (+0.4% YoY)
• Manhattan median rent: $4,750/month (+5% YoY)
• Brooklyn median rent: $3,750/month (+6% YoY)
• Vacancy rate (Manhattan): 1.6%
• Sales volume (Manhattan): 2,400 transactions (-12% YoY)
• Luxury market average sale price: $8 million (+1% YoY)

Conclusion:

Q1 2023 saw the continued impact of rising interest rates on New York City’s real estate market, with sales activity slowing and inventory levels rising slightly. Despite these challenges, prices remained relatively stable in Manhattan and Brooklyn, particularly in the luxury market. The rental market continued to see strong demand, with rising rents and low vacancy rates as potential buyers chose to rent instead. Looking ahead to Q2, the market is expected to remain competitive, with modest price adjustments and continued rental growth, particularly in high-demand areas like Downtown Manhattan and Brooklyn.