2023 Q3 Market Report

2023 Q3 New York City Real Estate Market Report

Overview:
The New York City real estate market in Q3 2023 exhibited a mixture of trends, with sales prices remaining relatively stable in most segments, while the rental market experienced continued growth. Sales activity slowed due to rising interest rates, but certain areas, particularly in Brooklyn and Upper Manhattan, continued to attract buyers looking for affordability. The luxury market held steady, supported by a strong presence of all-cash buyers. The rental market, facing high demand and limited supply, saw continued price increases, especially in Manhattan and Brooklyn.

Sales Market Highlights:

1. Price Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • The median sale price for Manhattan condos stood at $1.26 million, representing a 0.8% decrease year-over-year, but only a 0.3% drop from Q2 2023.
  • Co-op prices experienced a modest decline, with the median sale price at $845,000, down 1.5% year-over-year.
  • The average price per square foot for condos was $1,780, reflecting a 1.2% decrease from Q2 2023.
• Brooklyn:
  • The median condo price in Brooklyn was $980,000, showing a 0.6% year-over-year decline.
  • Co-ops in Brooklyn maintained stability with a median sale price of $725,000, unchanged from Q3 2022.

1. Sales Volume:

• Manhattan:
  • The number of transactions fell by 8% year-over-year, with around 2,500 sales recorded in Q3. The drop was largely due to the impact of rising interest rates, which limited buyer purchasing power.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn saw a more modest 4% decrease in sales activity, with 1,800 transactions. The borough continued to be a preferred option for those seeking relatively lower price points and more space.

1. Inventory Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • Inventory levels rose by 7%, with approximately 6,900 active listings by the end of Q3. The increased supply provided more choices for buyers, though many remained cautious amid economic uncertainty.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn’s inventory grew by 5%, with 6,000 active listings, offering a balanced market for buyers, though negotiations became more favorable for them in certain areas.

1. Luxury Market Performance:

• The luxury market (properties priced above $5 million) saw relative stability, with no significant change in the number of transactions compared to Q3 2022.
• The average sale price in this segment remained at $7.8 million, indicating that affluent buyers remained active, particularly those purchasing with cash.

1. Buyer Demographics:

• All-cash buyers continued to represent a significant portion of transactions, particularly in the luxury market, where they accounted for 45% of sales.
• First-time buyers faced challenges with affordability but still made up 10% of the market, benefiting from seller concessions and price adjustments in some neighborhoods.

Rental Market Highlights:

1. Strong Rent Growth:

• The rental market saw continued strength, with Manhattan median rents climbing to $4,900/month, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase.
• Brooklyn’s median rent increased to $3,850/month, a 5% rise compared to Q3 2022.

1. Demand for Larger Units:

• Larger apartments (2-3 bedrooms) were in high demand, with families and remote workers seeking additional space.
• The average rent for a 2-bedroom in Manhattan was $6,000/month, while in Brooklyn, the average rent for a 2-bedroom was $4,750/month.

1. Vacancy Rates:

• The vacancy rate in Manhattan remained low at 1.7%, while Brooklyn had a 2% vacancy rate, signaling a tight market with high demand.

1. Decreasing Landlord Concessions:

• Landlord concessions, such as one month free rent, were offered in 28% of new leases, down from 35% in Q2 2023, reflecting stronger market conditions for landlords.

New Developments and Construction:

1. New Supply:

• New condo and rental developments were delivered in Hudson Yards, Downtown Brooklyn, and Long Island City, adding 1,400 new units to the market.
• These projects featured high-end amenities and were aimed at affluent buyers and renters looking for luxury living with proximity to Manhattan.

1. Ongoing Construction Delays:

• Rising costs and labor shortages caused delays in several key projects, pushing completion dates into 2024. However, developers remained confident that demand would remain strong, particularly in the luxury market.

Future Forecast:

1. Sales Market Outlook (Q4 2023):

• Prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with slight adjustments based on continued interest rate pressures.
• Sales volume is likely to remain subdued as higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainty affect buyer confidence.
• The luxury market is expected to continue seeing steady activity, particularly from international buyers and all-cash purchasers.

1. Rental Market Outlook (Q4 2023):

• Rents are projected to rise by another 2-3% in Q4 due to strong demand and limited supply, especially in desirable neighborhoods like Downtown Manhattan and Brooklyn Heights.
• Vacancy rates will likely remain low, with few new rental units expected to hit the market in the short term.

1. Market Drivers:

• Interest rates will continue to influence buyer behavior, with many potential buyers choosing to rent instead due to affordability challenges.
• New development projects coming online in early 2024 may help ease some of the supply constraints in both the sales and rental markets.

Key Numbers Recap:

• Median sale price (Manhattan condos): $1.26 million (-0.8% YoY)
• Manhattan median rent: $4,900/month (+4% YoY)
• Brooklyn median rent: $3,850/month (+5% YoY)
• Vacancy rate (Manhattan): 1.7%
• Sales volume (Manhattan): 2,500 transactions (-8% YoY)
• Luxury market sales: $7.8 million (average sale price, steady YoY)

Conclusion:

Q3 2023 reflected the challenges of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty in New York City’s real estate market, with sales activity slowing and prices showing minor adjustments. However, the luxury segment remained resilient, supported by all-cash buyers and international interest. On the rental side, demand remained strong, pushing rents higher and keeping vacancy rates low. Looking ahead to Q4 2023, the market is expected to stabilize, with modest price movements in both the sales and rental sectors. Inventory levels are set to rise with new developments, but supply constraints will likely keep competition high, particularly in the rental market.