2024 Q1 Market Report

2024 Q1 New York City Real Estate Market Report

Overview:
In Q1 2024, New York City’s real estate market faced headwinds due to rising interest rates, economic uncertainty, and affordability concerns. While sales activity slowed, the rental market remained robust, driven by high demand and limited inventory. The luxury segment softened slightly, while mid-range properties saw steady activity, particularly in Brooklyn and parts of Manhattan.

Sales Market Highlights:

1. Price Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • The median sale price for condos in Manhattan was $1.23 million, reflecting a 1% year-over-year decrease and a slight 0.5% decline from Q4 2023.
  • Co-op prices saw a more pronounced 2.8% year-over-year decrease, with the median co-op sale price settling at $835,000.
  • The average price per square foot for condos was $1,760, showing a 2% drop from the previous quarter.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn’s median condo price stood at $960,000, a modest 1.5% decline year-over-year.
  • Co-op sales remained relatively steady, with a median price of $715,000, reflecting no significant change from Q1 2023.

1. Sales Volume:

• Manhattan:
  • Total sales volume decreased by 7% year-over-year, with approximately 2,100 transactions in Q1. Buyers faced affordability challenges due to higher borrowing costs.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn experienced a 5% year-over-year drop in sales activity, with 1,600 transactions. Despite this, Brooklyn remained attractive to buyers seeking value in comparison to Manhattan.

1. Inventory Trends:

• Manhattan:
  • Inventory levels in Manhattan increased by 8% compared to Q4 2023, reaching 7,000 active listings. This gave buyers more choices, but price negotiations remained tight.
• Brooklyn:
  • Brooklyn’s inventory grew by 6%, with 5,900 active listings by the end of Q1.

1. Luxury Market Softening:

• The luxury segment (properties priced above $5 million) saw slower activity, with a 12% year-over-year decline in transactions.
• The average sale price in the luxury market fell to $7.5 million, down from $8.3 million in Q1 2023, as wealthy buyers became more cautious amid rising interest rates and global economic concerns.

1. Buyer Demographics:

• All-cash buyers remained a strong presence, accounting for approximately 40% of transactions in Manhattan, particularly in the luxury market.
• First-time buyers made up 11% of sales, benefiting from incentives and price adjustments in certain segments of the market.

Rental Market Highlights:

1. Rising Rents:

• The rental market continued its upward trajectory in Q1, with Manhattan median rents reaching $5,000/month, a 3.5% year-over-year increase.
• Brooklyn’s median rent rose to $3,900/month, reflecting a 4.2% increase compared to Q1 2023.

1. Demand for Larger Units:

• Larger apartments (2-3 bedrooms) were particularly in demand, as families and remote workers sought additional space.
• The average rent for a 2-bedroom in Manhattan was $6,150/month, while Brooklyn’s average 2-bedroom rent reached $4,850/month.

1. Low Vacancy Rates:

• Manhattan’s vacancy rate dropped to 1.5%, while Brooklyn had a 1.9% vacancy rate, underscoring the tight supply and high demand in the rental market.

1. Landlord Incentives:

• Landlord concessions, such as free months of rent, were offered in 25% of new leases, down from 40% in Q4 2023, as the competitive rental market allowed landlords to reduce incentives.

New Developments and Construction:

1. New Supply:

• Q1 saw the completion of several notable projects in Hudson Yards, Downtown Brooklyn, and Long Island City, adding 1,000 new units to the market.
• These new developments offered modern amenities and attracted buyers and renters alike, particularly those looking for luxury living with easy access to Manhattan.

1. Delayed Projects:

• Rising construction costs and labor shortages delayed several key projects, pushing anticipated completions into late 2024 and early 2025.
• Despite delays, developers remained optimistic, with over 4,000 units expected to come online in the next 18 months.

Future Forecast:

1. Sales Market Outlook (Q2 2024):

• Sales prices are expected to remain flat or experience slight decreases in Q2 as interest rates remain elevated.
• Sales volume is likely to stay subdued, though increased inventory may encourage more buyers to enter the market.
• The luxury market may continue to see price adjustments, but international buyers are expected to return in greater numbers as global conditions stabilize.

1. Rental Market Outlook (Q2 2024):

• Rents are projected to rise by another 2% to 3% in Q2 due to sustained demand and limited supply.
• Vacancy rates are expected to remain low, with little relief for renters until new rental buildings become available in late 2024.

1. Market Drivers:

• Mortgage rates will remain a key factor influencing buyer behavior, with all-cash buyers maintaining a strong presence in the market.
• New development projects in Brooklyn and Queens are expected to provide more housing options, potentially easing the supply crunch in Q3 and beyond.

Key Numbers Recap:

• Median sale price (Manhattan condos): $1.23 million (-1% YoY)
• Manhattan median rent: $5,000/month (+3.5% YoY)
• Brooklyn median rent: $3,900/month (+4.2% YoY)
• Vacancy rate (Manhattan): 1.5%
• Sales volume (Manhattan): 2,100 transactions (-7% YoY)
• Luxury market sales: $7.5 million (average sale price, down 12% YoY)

Conclusion:

Q1 2024 saw a challenging sales market in New York City, with prices softening slightly due to rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. However, the rental market remained exceptionally strong, driven by high demand and limited supply. Looking ahead, the market is expected to stabilize in Q2, with modest price increases in the rental sector and continued pressure on sales activity, particularly in the luxury segment. New developments coming online later in 2024 will be crucial in addressing the city’s housing shortage and providing more options for both buyers and renters.